Scottish Political News

Now that there has been some time to allow the result of the Glasgow East by-election, I feel like posting some thoughts that are less drunken and kneejerk than my previous post. Originally this was going to be one post, but I ended up blabbing for almost 3,000 words so I have split this into three separate posts which will appear one-by-one over the coming days.

First of all, I’ve spotted a few people south of the border wondering about the impact of the result on the union. For instance, Jennie at The Yorkeshire Gob, Jonathan Calder at Liberal England.

I might be on my own here, but my impression is that people in Scotland simply are not asking that same question. I must say that, as far as I can see it, the Glasgow East by-election result could hardly mean less for the union. Although the SNP are proud — and rightly so — of their victory last week, the reality is that this was much more of a Labour loss than an SNP win. Deep down, I think the SNP know that too.

I read (or heard, I can’t remember) a good analysis of Labour’s current woes. I have completely forgotten where I saw this, but the analysis was this. While the people of England and Wales have fallen out of love with Gordon Brown, the people of Scotland have fallen out of love of the Labour Party.

As regular readers may remember, I have from time to time been quite exasperated at how much people (perhaps particularly people south of the border) are still prepared to give the Labour Party the benefit of the doubt time and time again. I think now I understand why. The Labour Party in Scotland acts differently to the Labour Party in the rest of the UK. It’s certainly perceived differently.

Here in Scotland, voters smell the stench of corruption in the Labour Party. When you bear this in mind, as Holyrood Watcher points out, it’s not so difficult to understand why Labour lost in Glasgow East.

It is not just financial wrongdoings either — it’s a sense that Labour took its core voters for granted. There is a mega mega backlash against Labour in its core constituencies in Scotland.

Take my part of the world, Fife, as an example. Until recently, Fife was completely red apart from in the slightly more rural north-eastern part where Menzies Campbell enjoys a healthy majority.

That changed in 2006 when the Liberal Democrats took the Dunfermline and West Fife seat in a by-election, overturning a significant Labour majority. That was an election that Labour shouldn’t really have lost. But the loss was just blamed on Iraq, or whatever, and people shrugged their shoulders and carried on.

Then last year in the Scottish Parliamentary elections the SNP pulled off a surprise by winning Fife Central. It wasn’t the safest of Labour seats, but it was still a sign that Fife wasn’t quite the Labour heartland it used to be.

That was in the Scottish Parliamentary election. But if I remember correctly, the SNP are fairly confident that they will win the roughly corresponding Westminster constituency of Glenrothes. I have relatives in Glenrothes and apparently there is a lot of support for the SNP there.

Assuming the Lib Dems cling on to their two other seats in Fife, that would leave Labour with just one seat in Fife — Gordon Brown’s in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, where I live. Given the massive unpopularity of Gordon Brown at the moment, any “halo effect” there might have been will probably have vanished, and who is to say that the SNP cannot win here? Come the Westminster election I am planning to vote for the SNP to get rid of Labour.

And here is the thing. The SNP can probably count on much of its support for this reason. It is an anti-Labour thing rather than a pro-SNP thing. That can be seen from the fact that (according to my line of events anyway — your mileage may vary!) the ball was started rolling by the Lib Dems.

For a while I thought that the significant anti-Labour vote would mean that whichever party was in the best position to beat Labour in a particular constituency would grab the votes. Come the Scottish Parliamentary election it didn’t quite work out that way and the only real beneficiaries were the SNP.

I guess in the end the Lib Dems were unable to gain in the same way for a number of reasons. First of all, the media coverage made the election into a Labour vs. SNP battle pretty early on. Also, the Lib Dems did not run a great campaign from what I could see, and I never thought Nicol Stephen was up to much as leader.

Also, the Lib Dems were tainted by association. It was difficult for them to capitalise on the anti-Labour vote when they were having to spend the election campaign defending their record as part of a coalition partnership with Labour. That’s why the SNP capitalised on the Labour backlash and the Lib Dems didn’t.

It is, I suppose, PR at the public expense. Despite that, I cannot find it in me to take against the notion of a peripatetic Scottish Cabinet.

Starting today in Dumfries, the members of Alex Salmond's Cabinet are being paraded around Scotland, a little like a travelling political circus. Stand by Inverness, Pitlochry and Skye. You're next.

The ostensible reason for holding Cabinet meetings around the country is to ensure that the Ministers at the core of the Scottish Government continue to engage with territories and concerns beyond the central belt.

They could, of course, do this by visiting each other's constituencies or by conducting Ministerial visits. However, there is apparently much to be gained from a collective descent.

What will be the upshot? Presumably, such decisions as are taken at these meetings will resemble the conclusions reached in Edinburgh. That is because these verdicts are, one trusts, based upon sound, detailed evidence and consideration - not because the Ministers happen to be in Pitlochry.

Stop, Brian, stop. Desist. Disavow cynicism. This is a reasonable wheeze which might contribute somewhat to public engagement with governmental politics. It's hermless, as we say in the great and noble city of Dundee.

Plus the formal Cabinet meetings are being backed up by local endeavour, including contact with community and voluntary organisations.

This is a Good Thing, as defined by the seminal work on political history: 1066 and All That.

I can recall Michael Forsyth's Grand Committee Road Show when MPs were despatched to similar settings around the country. Dumfries, indeed, featured a visit by the Prime Minister John Major to the Scottish Grand Committee.
Mr, now Lord, Forsyth, was attempting to demonstrate that the Grand, suitably enhanced, could do pretty well everything that might be achieved by a devolved Parliament, sited in Scotland.

This was, of course, a bogus prospectus - neglecting the fact that the devolved Parliament derives a mandate solely from Scotland, rather than a reflection of the UK voting pattern.

No matter. While it lasted, the Grand on Tour was a great show. I remember with particular affection the quantity and vigour of the public demonstrations which accompanied each separate manifestation.

We have, incidentally, lost something in that regard since Holyrood moved to, well, Holyrood.

The Mound was the spot for demos since MSPs had to travel on foot from their offices at the other side of the Royal Mile, braving tourists, pipers, citizens and, occasionally, horses.

But back to peripatetic politics. All the best to the Cabinet on their tour. Hope they have fine weather. Hope that they, singly, contrive to get some time off to rest the intellect - unlike last summer when they were lashed to the mast throughout by Captain Salmond.

The FM will undoubtedly seek to compare this present exercise with the only occasion to date when the UK Cabinet met outside London.

That was on 7 September 1921, in Inverness, when David Lloyd George called an emergency meeting to discuss the Irish crisis. The PM had been holidaying in the Highlands. For the avoidance of doubt, I didn't cover that political gig.

There is a fundamental contradiction at the core of the contest to become Scottish Labour leader. (See blogs and umpteen previous comments.)

That contradiction does not lie within the party's attitude towards a potential independence referendum - although that is a key question.

In essence, each of the main three contenders will defer a decision on that until a Bill is tabled in 2010.

No more "bring it on". Rather "put it off". Doesn't mean it won't be a tough call in 2010.

But does mean Labour won't decide now.

Rather, the immediate conundrum lies in the status and nature of the job itself.

The conundrum is this. Strictly, the job vacated by Wendy Alexander is that of "Leader of Labour in the Scottish Parliament."

Holyrood spotlight

It is a parliamentary post, not one carrying wider weight within the movement or the party apparatus.

This is particularly insisted upon by Labour MPs who dislike Holyrood's place in the spotlight.

However, if such is the case - and it is - then why is the voting franchise for the coming contest extended beyond Holyrood? To be blunt, why should Labour MPs be enabled to vote for a leader to whom they owe no allegiance?

If the post is "Scottish Labour Leader", in full, then it is perfectly valid, indeed essential, that all wings of the party, including MPs, union and constituency members, should have a say.

If the post is constrained, in effect, to leading the group at Holyrood, then is that not a decision for MSPs to take?

Sound technical? It's not, it's fundamental. The wider question is this: is there truly a Scottish Labour Party to lead? Or simply a branch organisation for the wider Labour Party?

Historically, the set-up north of the Border was the Labour Party (Scottish Council.) There was minimal devolution of policy or administrative power. The leader was the UK party leader. The governing body was the NEC in London.

Least devolved

When Jack McConnell was appointed general secretary of the party in Scotland, he and fellow contenders had to travel to Preston to accommodate UK union leaders who were attending a conference in nearby Blackpool.

Labour legislated for Scottish devolution but remains the least devolved of the UK parties. By definition, that leaves it trailing behind the Scottish National Party in terms of projecting a Scottish dimension in politics.

There are good reasons for this. A party with Socialist roots was perhaps intrinsically suspicious of nationalist or quasi-nationalist politics.

Labour was seemingly dominant in Scotland and was mistrustful of internal change. The temptation of inertia was strong.

Those reasons persist. However, the party has a choice. There always was, to some extent, a Scottish body politic: that is, a broad civic debate in which the interests of Scotland are to the fore and those parties thrive which adhere to those perceived Scottish interests.

That factor is now amplified several times over - not least since the arrival of the SNP in devolved government.

To varying degrees, Donald Dewar, Henry McLeish and Jack McConnell had to glance over their shoulder, had to accommodate London and wider UK party interests.

UK force

Alex Salmond, palpably and gleefully, does not.

There will be those in London who will argue, forcefully, that the party must remain a UK force, that it should not give ground to nationalism. There was and is a case for accommodating that perspective.

But, in current and foreseeable circumstances in Scotland, that perspective foreshadows continuing defeat north of the Border.

Jack McConnell knew that - and sought change, while struggling within the shackles of the compromises involved. Wendy Alexander knew that - and pursued a course which involved greater autonomy for the party in Scotland and its elected leader.

The main contenders in the forthcoming contest know it too.

Well it seems as though everyone else has been doing it, especially on the Scottish blogs. It’s all in aid of the 2008-9 Guide to Political Blogging in the UK by Iain Dale. He’s asking everyone to vote you see.

Last year, quite incredibly, this blog was named as the number 2 Scottish political blog thanks to Grant Thoms of Tartan Hero fame. Some will say that this blog is indeed a load of number 2, so the position is pretty apt. But I would be amazed if I repeated the feat this year.

So vote for me now!

As a few other bloggers have done, I will reveal my top ten political blogs. If nothing else, it fills a bit of space here. You might also be interested in my recent post on ten excellent blogs.

It’s not easy choosing just ten great blogs — and choosing the order of them is even harder. But you probably know that. I tend to go through love / hate (or at least ‘love / indifferent’) relationships with most blogs. No doubt this list would look very different if I compiled it next week.

1. Stumbling and Mumbling
2. SNP Tactical Voting
3. UK Polling Report
4. Political Betting
5. Mr Eugenides
6. J. Arthur MacNumpty
7. Ideas of Civilisation
8. Holyrood Chronicles
9. Freedom and Whisky
10. Liberal England

One to file under “why on earth didn’t I think of that?”. Ewan Spence has analysed each of this year’s Eurovision Song Contest entries in Last.fm.

For those who don’t know, Last.fm is a smart website that tracks your music (or podcast) listening habits. It can generate recommendations for you, but I joined the site almost four years ago. Back in those days when it was called Audioscrobbler (before it merged with Last.fm which was a separate website with a slightly different purpose) so I’m just there for all the wonderful stats about my taste in music. (In case anyone’s interested, my profile is here.)

Ewan Spence took a look at the stats for each of the songs in this year’s ESC to see how they measured up. Regular readers may remember that I wrote a post a couple of months back debunking the theory that the ESC is dominated by political bloc voting. So I was pleased to see Ewan Spence’s analysis which suggests that broadly the most popular songs as measured by Last.fm are also the songs that tended to do well in this year’s ESC.

However, there is one mega outlier. And it’s a groovy French man who is way out in front on the Last.fm chart — Sébastien Tellier.

If you remember my post about bloc voting in the ESC, you might also remember that even though there is no political voting, I concluded that France woz robbed. I wasn’t the only one either — I saw that quite a few people liked Sébastien Tellier’s song in particular.

I still see people discussing him from time to time. In fact, I have one friend who likes to talk about Sébastien Tellier quite often. He refers to him as “the hairy Jarvis Cocker”. From what I can gather, Sébastien Tellier had built up quite a following prior to Eurovision. His latest is his third album and is produced by one of the guys from Daft Punk. And back in the day he toured with Air.

Ewan Spence suggests there might be some tricky goings-on with Tellier’s numbers such as a Last.fm player on his website or something. I think it might be down to the fact that Sébastien Tellier is quite popular, so actually merits the attention on Last.fm. In fact, I have contributed to Sébastien Tellier’s numbers on Last.fm as I bought the album Sexuality on the strength of his Eurovision song ‘Divine’.

So, was Sébastian Tellier robbed? Yes and no. Simple following alone can’t explain the discrepancy. While Tellier has some fans, the winner of the Eurovision Song Contest — Russia’s Dima Bilan — is a major pop star with several number ones across eastern Europe.

I think it might have a lot to do with the type of person who uses Last.fm though — i.e. people who really, really like music. A slightly odd French electronic artist is just the sort of thing that would probably appeal to your average Last.fm user more than the average person on the street for whom music is like wallpaper.

Take a look at the this week’s Last.fm chart. Like Ewan Spence’s chart, it bears a vague resemblance to actual popularity, but with a few oddities along the way.

Where, for instance, is the UK’s biggest selling artist of the year so far, Duffy? 166th — behind a lot of pretty obscure artists (by which I mean people I’ve never heard of). I bet if you did a televote Duffy would be near the top.

The point is that Sébastien Tellier is great. But it was a bit like the French equivalent of the UK entering Aphex Twin (213th in Last.fm, ahead of the likes of Christina Aguilera, Norah Jones and Lily Allen) — right down to having everyone on stage looking like him. It would be great, but most would be left scratching their heads.

So hurrah for Sébastien Tellier. Eurovision may have ignored him, but that is understandable. Those on Last.fm can handle its odd French electronic music. One more time!

The other day I received a comment from the person who runs the By-Elections blog and this website about by-elections. I don’t have any leaflets but I’m happy to help out. I’m sure a few activists, or anyone who happens to live in the Glasgow East area, who are reading this might have a few spare leaflets.

Hi

I run the By-elections blog

http://by_elections.blogspot.com/

I have just found your coverage of the Glasgow East by-election.

I also help run the By-election archive website at

http://www.geocities.com/by_elections/

Would it be possible for you to help us archive the leaflets from Glasgow East?

please contact me via the website or the blog if you can help with scans or by sending us the leaflets for us to scan.

I look forward to your coverage of the result.

Thanks

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