Archive for June, 2008

Jun 30 2008

Local focus

Court news. David Marshall has been appointed to the post of steward and bailiff of the Manor of Northstead.

Which matters why? Because that counts as a (nominal) office of profit under the Crown. Even nominal beneficiaries cannot, simultaneously, be Members of Parliament.

In short, Labour's David Marshall has quit his seat in the Commons via the circumnavigation customary in the Palace of Westminster.

Which matters why? (Other than, of course, to Mr Marshall.) Because it creates a by-election: exactly the last thing Labour needs right now.

I knew and rather liked David Marshall when he was first elected in 1979 - and for a goodly number of years thereafter. That was in the days when I plied my trade in Westminster.

Never flash, he was nonetheless a diligent member, usually pursuing issues of poverty, homelessness and the like. He once brandished a blade in the Commons to make a point about knife crime in his area.

I must confess I have followed his career less assiduously of late. But I am sorry to hear he is unwell.

Labour decline

His departure, however, poses Gordon Brown a considerable problem. One would normally describe this seat as "solid Labour".

Mr Marshall had a majority of 13,507 at the General election. He took more than 60% of the votes cast.

Since then, however, Labour has declined. And the Scottish National Party, second placed in Glasgow East, has prospered: not least through gaining power in the Scottish Parliament last May.

Plus Labour has lost a leader. Not THE leader: that's Gordon Brown. Mr Brown's writ extends, fully, to Scotland: Labour is relatively minimally devolved.

But Wendy Alexander, Labour's leader at Holyrood, has gone.

So, just as the party should be focusing on a tough Westminster by-election, it will also be thinking about future leadership and strategy, in Scotland.

Labour, we hear, will fight Glasgow East as a local campaign on local issues. The candidate, they intend, will be a solid local citizen. One name repeatedly mentioned is Councillor George Ryan.

Why the local focus? Well, would you fight on UK or even Scottish issues - when your party has lost ground at Westminster and is leaderless at Holyrood?

Scottish average

By contrast, expect the SNP - who will select on Thursday - to fight on Labour's record.

The 10p tax rate, the price of fuel, the price of food, changes to the rules on benefits.
Those issues may well get a hearing from constituents in Glasgow East.

For example, the 2001 census indicated that Glasgow Shettleston (the old name for this seat) listed around one third of its citizens as having a "limiting long term illness". That is considerably above the Scottish average.

Despite efforts at regeneration, this area remains deprived. The mammoth Easterhouse estate lies within the constituency boundaries.

This is one of the schemes memorably described by Billy Connolly as "deserts wi' windaes". (Translation: arid, glazed zones.)

Mr Connolly is an occasional visitor to another Glasgow East icon: Celtic Park, the home of the current Scottish footballing championsgue Champions.

Can Labour win? They can: victory for the SNP requires a 22% swing, notably substantial.

Different question

A comparable swing was achieved in Hamilton South in 1999 - yet the SNP fell short.

Good example, says Labour. Proves that the SNP can be withheld. Plus that was a tougher contest because it was "unnecessary". (George Robertson stood down to take the top job at NATO.)

Poor example, says the SNP. Labour was flying high, relatively speaking, in 1999. It's slumped since.

So will Labour win? Different question.

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Jun 30 2008

In defence of abstention

Published by doctorvee under Sottish Politics

Yet again, the comments to a previous post have gone on an interesting tangent. Once again Jeff was behind it. He’s not afraid to get stuck into a debate and he always has some interesting points to share, even though I don’t always agree with him! I thought the discussion was quite good so I want to share some of it in a new post and also expand on my thinking behind abstention and why it is not a bad thing.

Before I start I should point out that I have never abstained in an election that was at local government level or above. In fact, in the local government elections last year I listed a whopping four preferences. Not bad for a cynic! (Having said that, it was admittedly for negative reasons — I wanted to vote for everyone except Labour).

Nonetheless, I struggle nowadays to understand why abstainers are so vilified, as though they are sub-human. I think sometimes people conflate abstention with apathy. In reality it is perfectly consistent to be interested in politics and yet not vote when the election comes round.

In his first comment Jeff said:

I find it incredible that someone can maintain such a thoughtful and intelligent political blog with all these numerous opinions and then, when an election comes around, he may not take part.

Compare and contrast with James O’Malley’s comment:

I think your experiences of becoming more apathetic with age - essentially more apathetic as you became better informed - are pretty similar for a lot of people. I’ve just finished a degree in International Relations, and as a consequence of learning what a horrible bleak mess the world is, I think we all became cynical about almost anything political.

I have gone through a similar process. Being interested in elections and voting behaviour, whenever there was an opportunity to study them at university I took it. I wrote my dissertation on what motivates people to vote. The whole learning experience has led me to become less likely to vote and more sympathetic towards abstainers.

(As an aside, if anyone’s interested, I have decided to upload my dissertation here since it got the best mark of anything I ever did at university so I feel quite good about it! So if you’re interested and you have a bit of spare time, have a read and you might get a bit more insight into my current thinking about voting.)

In short, Jeff asked why someone like me would not vote despite knowing so much about politics. What slipped his mind was the possibility that someone like me would not vote because they know so much about politics.

For a few months now I have been meaning to outline a few problems with elections and democracy as we know it (this post isn’t it by the way, it’s still coming). This is not because I am not a democrat, because I am. However, I am disappointed in the poor standard of analysis of democracy. Discussions about it frequently descend into a list of clichés and slogans. It leads me to think that most people are democrats because of blind faith rather than because they have actually thought about it.

That’s a dangerous situation to be in because it breeds complacency. The flaws of democracy are constantly swept under the carpet. But the only way to improve things is to put the flaws on a pedestal and debate them properly. Simply pulling out that hoary old Churchill quote doesn’t bring us any further forward.

That was the case in the comments to the post about student apathy. All I said was that I understood why some people would not vote. Before I knew it, commenters made out that I was advocating something resembling anarchy, I had no right to complain if I didn’t vote, I was doing an injustice to the people of Zimbabwe, and, yes, that bloody Churchill quote was wheeled out. A who’s who of clichéd arguments that get us no further forward.

Bellgrove Belle began proceedings by advocating compulsory voting — albeit with a ‘none of the above’ option (how gracious of you!!). I let that slip by at the time, but only because I didn’t want to go down that tangent. However, now that I have started a separate post I will outline why compulsory voting is the most outrageous idea.

Firstly — and this should hardly need pointing out — people are not the servants of politicians. Yet. Politicians are the servants of the people. Having a government frogmarching everyone to the polling station is not my idea of freedom. The point about the right to vote is that it is a right. That means that you can choose to use it or not. If you are forced to vote, it is no longer a right — it is an oppression.

A vital principle of our liberal way of life is that people know for themselves what is best in almost all instances unless their actions cause harm to others. If people do not vote, it is not because they are wrong (which is a view typically only found among political elites). It is because, for the abstainers, it is costly to go out and vote. And if it is costly for an individual, in turn it is costly to society.

Beyond the cost of sending everyone out to vote, what is wrong with just leaving people be? People should be perfectly entitled to abstain if they want. Forcing people to do things they do not want to do will only breed even more cynicism and apathy.

Having a ‘none of the above’ option is the ridiculous fig leaf to all of these criticisms. There is already a none of the above option. People know very well that they can spoil their paper when they get to the polling station. If people were screaming out for a none of the above option, we would know it by now.

I have only ever heard compulsory voting being advocated by two groups of people: politicians and aspiring politicians. It is funny that these people should select the one ’solution’ to apathy that is almost guaranteed to give them more votes. What a coincidence! Moreover, it is the lazy option for them to choose. It implies that it is the voters who have done wrong, which is a very undemocratic stance to take in actual fact. For politicians, the idea that it is they themselves who have caused apathy — and that it is their job to fix it — is too difficult for them to comprehend, so it seems.

Jeff was next up, suggesting that the logical conclusion of my defending abstention for an individual is advocating mass abstention. Nothing could be further from the truth. Indeed, it is the very fact that others vote in their millions that makes abstention as an individual a reasonable option.

If no-one else voted then I would find the voting decision very easy — I would cast the deciding vote, probably for myself. We don’t live in that world, and my stance is a pragmatic recognition of that fact.

There is that old guilt trip: “what if everyone else thought like you?” The point is that not everyone does think like me. And it would be rather egotistical of me to think that my actions would be copied en masse by the population as a whole. If it were the case that I was so influential, I would find myself sharing the same bed with six and a half billion others every night. As Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt point out:

Imagine that you and your 8-year-old daughter are taking a walk through a botanical garden when she suddenly pulls a bright blossom off a tree.

“You shouldn’t do that,” you find yourself saying.

“Why not?” she asks.

“Well,” you reason, “because if everyone picked one, there wouldn’t be any flowers left at all.”

“Yeah, but everybody isn’t picking them,” she says with a look. “Only me.”

Then Jeff pulls out that old one — if you’re so dissatisfied with the candidates, why don’t you stand yourself? The answer, I would have thought, should be obvious. Standing for election would involve immense personal financial and other costs. I would have to give up my job to dedicate enough time to campaigning, meaning a loss of income. Then I would have to somehow fund the campaign itself.

On top of that, I would probably lose my deposit. The political system is heavily biased in favour of the large parties — partly because of the voting system, partly because of the media and whatever else. The fact is that if you want to be successful in an election you almost always need the backing of a big party machine.

Independent candidates are successful from time to time, and small parties do break through. But in reality these are all led by either someone with a lot of money or a celebrity figure like Tommy Sheridan or Martin Bell. The other successful independents are single-issue (often local-issue) candidates, and I am interested in more than one local issue.

The point I am making is that were I to stand for election tomorrow, no matter how good my policies were, I would have almost no chance of making any kind of impact whatsoever. Am I supposed to believe, as Jeff suggests, that this is the extent of my democratic powers? You can’t exactly blame someone for not doing this when the odds are so heavily stacked against them.

Get ready for another cliché now. “If you don’t vote, you don’t have the right to complain.” Aaah, *tick*.

This is one of the oldest ones in the book. Yet even though it’s a catchy slogan, what is always omitted is exactly the reason why you don’t have the right to complain. Is that because there isn’t one?

Democracy is about so much more than elections. For sure, an election is a vital cog in the democratic process, but it is just one cog among many. China has elections, but that doesn’t make it a democracy. Just this week we have witnessed a sham election in Zimbabwe.

I would think that the idea that elections are the only valid form of political participation in a democracy would come as a surprise to the many pressure groups, non-governmental organisations, media outlets, publishers, think tanks, academics, mass demonstrators, lone protesters, letter writers, bloggers even, and others — all of whom play a vital role in a democracy. Is it really more valid to enact change “from within”? Then we are to do away with all of these vital elements of civic society? Are these people all supposed to stand for election as well? Are they harassed about their voting behaviour before being permitted to speak up?

Democracy is so much more than putting an X in a box. It is about speaking out, debating and persuading. If you have next to no power in the ballot box, what is so illegitimate about using a different method of trying to improve the world? I think that suggesting that people don’t have a right to speak out because they recognise that their vote is near worthless is actually an intensely anti-democratic view to take.

Jeff’s position is apparently to say that the only valid way I have to express myself is to vote for someone, even if it is the “least worst” candidate. Am I really supposed to believe that the extent of my democratic rights is to vote Lib Dem instead of Labour?

Even when I do express a preference in the polling booth, that vote is a drop in the ocean. My reasons for voting are lost among those of thousands of other voters (or, in a national election, millions of others), each of whom voted for different reasons. The politician then cherry-picks the reasons that suit his agenda best. So what have I achieved by voting?

I can say that the time I have spent voting is a waste when I could have spent that time engaging in another democratic activity. For instance, I could have spent that time writing here. That way I can articulate my views in an infinitely more nuanced way than I would by voting. This makes my voice louder than it otherwise would have been. I believe that I can make more of a difference by doing this. What would be so illegitimate about that?

This is all without even getting into the instance where you genuinely are undecided. If a voter is guilt-tripped or compelled to haul himself into the polling station, what is he supposed to do? Toss a coin? Close his eyes and see where the pencil lands? Given that your vote is essentially a way of enforcing your views onto other people, I am amazed that anyone thinks that the decision to vote should be taken so lightly.

Finally came the guilt trip from Ideas of Civilisation. He brought up the current situation in Zimbabwe saying, “it’s a reminder of the freedoms, and responsibilities, we have here.”

The thing is, I believe that recent events in Zimbabwe support my view. Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out of the contest because the election was a “violent sham”. Was that illegitimate? Or should he have contested the election because otherwise he doesn’t have the right to criticise? Of course not. His voice is louder outside the contest and he has made the point about the current situation in Zimbabwe very forcefully. It is a perfect example of making one’s voice heard outside of official electoral channels.

Of course, the situation in Zimbabwe is very different to the situation we face in this country and other, freer, more democratic countries. I suspect the point IoC was making about Zimbabwe was that, in such countries whenever there is a free election is usually has a comparatively high turnout.

That is right, although it is a very different situation. When you are given hope in the shape of an inspiring candidate you are bound to grab it with both hands. That is the case even more so if the bandwagon theory (discussed in my dissertation) is true — people want to feel a part of making a big change so will take part in the vote.

You don’t have to live in an unfree country for such a thing to happen, so that doesn’t put this country’s politicians off the hook. Barack Obama is currently doing it in the USA by engaging certain parts of the electorate at levels that have never been achieved before. It’s just that right now there is no such candidate in this country.

Back to the unfree country though. Even in the hypothetical watershed election that brings everyone hope, turnout will not be 100%. It might be higher than the turnouts we see in this country, but it will be nowhere near 100%. In fact, if turnout was anywhere close to 100% accusations of vote rigging will be flying.

This fact demonstrates that abstention is a perfectly natural and legitimate position to take in an election. In fact, it serves a very useful function in a democracy. Any attempts to eradicate it should be viewed with as much suspicion as attempts to eradicate any other political view.

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Jun 30 2008

Jamie Murray - gentleman?

Published by HW under Sottish Politics

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Jun 30 2008

Of Significant Interest

Published by Mark McDonald under Sottish Politics

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Jun 30 2008

A reminder

Published by HW under Sottish Politics

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Jun 30 2008

Quote of the day

Published by HW under Sottish Politics

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Jun 30 2008

Adam Smith statue

Published by David Farrer under Sottish Politics

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Jun 30 2008

A War Story….

Published by Richard Havers under Sottish Politics

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Jun 29 2008

Wendy Alexander bites the dust

Published by Bill under Sottish Politics

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Jun 29 2008

East End 5K

Published by BellgroveBelle under Sottish Politics

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Jun 29 2008

Even Gordon Brown’s friends recognise he is useless

Published by Bill under Sottish Politics

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Jun 29 2008

Bent or merely bendy?

Published by David Farrer under Sottish Politics

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Jun 29 2008

Separated at birth?

Published by David Farrer under Sottish Politics

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Jun 29 2008

Adam Smith statue unveiling - Friday 4 July 2008 - Edinburgh

Published by Bill under Sottish Politics

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Jun 29 2008

It’s Not Good News For Scotland

Published by Richard Havers under Sottish Politics

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Jun 28 2008

Havering On Springwatch - One Step Beyond….

Published by Richard Havers under Sottish Politics

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Jun 28 2008

Wendy resigns

And so she's gone. Why now?

Why does Wendy Alexander resign over a minor slap on the wrist from a Parliamentary committee - when she was prepared to tough it out over what one of her team admitted was a breach of the law?

The cumulative effect, of course. But, more, it reflects the varying psychological response from Ms Alexander.

When it was disclosed that her campaign had received an illegal donation from a Jersey businessman, her first reaction was dismay.

She thought, seriously, she had to quit.

Then dismay turned to anger as she felt she had to fight back against her accusers.

Dismay to anger

This time round, she has gone in reverse: from anger to dismay.

She watched on Thursday as Holyrood's Standards Committee voted to suspend her for a single day because she had failed to declare campaign donations timeously on her register as an MSP.

She watched in mounting fury. She thought it a politically inspired stitch-up. Her aides were similarly angry.

David Whitton MSP strode down to the Garden Lobby at Holyrood to deliver an irate rebuttal. He was visibly tense.

Anger to dismay

She felt she had to go, she felt it was never ebbing away as an issue, she felt she had let down her party. Inadvertently, she believes. She resisted pressure from the PM to stay.

And so she's gone, blaming an unyielding pursuit by relentless SNP rivals. Does that quite work for you as an explanation?

I must confess it doesn't do it for me.

Politics is a rough trade: it is customary to expose weakness. It is part of the adversarial nature of party debate.

Did Labour hold back when John Major was under relentless pursuit? OK, so that was bigger league.

Did Labour cry foul, then, when David McLetchie, the Scottish Conservative leader, was facing criticism over taxi bills?

Wendy Alexander's campaign team sought donations from the business sector to fund her efforts to become leader.

Quite unnecessarily, as it turned out, because she was uncontested.

Was it, perhaps, superfluous in any case? Were the members of Team Alexander perhaps seduced by the thought of entering the Premier Division of politics, with premier division funding to match?

Couldn't they have got by with a series of hustings around Scotland?

After all, the Scottish Labour Party is, these days, relatively small.

She wasn't fighting a general election, simply an internal party contest.

Were members of the inner circle trying to show the extent of their clout: look at me, I can bring in big (OK, medium) bucks from serious business players.

Did the SNP pursue this relentlessly? Yes.

However, one of those donations, from a Jersey businessman, was illegal.

Full stop.

One can talk about mitigation, one can talk about who knew what and when.

One can point to the MSP, Charlie Gordon, who solicited the donation. But, as Tom McCabe conceded, the law was broken.

Separately, the issue of registration. There it is possible to evince more sympathy for Ms Alexander.

She was advised, in writing, by Parliamentary officials that she did not need to register the donations in her capacity as an MSP.

She followed the code. She followed procedure. With one rather crucial exception. By the time she sought advice, the deadline for registration had already passed with respect to at least some of the donations.

Then the issue of the ruling by the Standards Commissioner. He disagreed with the advice from the clerks. He said the donations should have been registered. They were tantamount to gifts.

Again, couple of points. Ms Alexander could have forestalled all of this had she over-complied: had she registered the donations, regardless of the advice.

Further, it seems to me that the system is slipshod and open to confusion.

It is not sufficient, I would submit, to determine such a relatively important matter as the registration of campaign donations on the basis of a few lines in a casual e-mail from a clerk, albeit on the basis of legal advice.

If such guidance is to be robust, it should be seriously scrutinised and delivered in a style that suggests it can withstand alternative interpretations.

In short, such guidance needs to show the arguments deployed, needs to show the working.

Further, the Standards committee at Holyrood looked, to me, uncomfortable in dealing with this issue.

Perhaps it was the partisan pressures involved, perhaps it was the political reputations at stake.

But they looked and sounded unhappy and unsure.

If this was a breach of Parliamentary rules by a party leader, should it not have merited more than one day's suspension? If it wasn't such a breach, because of mitigation, should it not have been dismissed?

Finally, the Labour Party. Not good for them, not good at all.

Doubt if they'll be reprising the old ditty "things can only get better" any time soon.

Wendy Alexander's leadership failed. She failed to counter Alex Salmond in the chamber. But will others do better?

She failed, fully, to persuade the party, especially the Prime Minister, to endorse her strategy of countering Mr Salmond with an early referendum on independence.

However, more than many others, she got the concept of the challenge facing Labour in Scotland.

Before the rest, she acknowledged that Labour lost - and deserved to lose - to the SNP.

It wasn't a fluke, it wasn't a swizz, it wasn't a temporary blip. It was a defeat at the hands of the voters.

Before the rest, she argued that Labour required to stand up ineluctably for Scotland - even if that meant standing against London, including the PM.

She recognised that Scottish Labour had to back David, not Goliath.

As of today, the slingshot has come her way.

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Jun 28 2008

Quote of the day

Published by HW under Sottish Politics

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Jun 28 2008

The modern day saint

Published by HW under Sottish Politics

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Jun 28 2008

Hallelujah indeed

Published by HW under Sottish Politics

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Jun 27 2008

“First female Scots top cop speaks”

Published by David Farrer under Sottish Politics

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Jun 27 2008

The Scottish navy

Published by HW under Sottish Politics

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Jun 26 2008

The silly thing with the gown and stuff

Published by doctorvee under Sottish Politics

There has not been much blogging this week because I have been quite busy. Part of that is because my next post is another epic rant unfortunately (looking like 2,000 words plus at the moment). But most of the time has been spent on preparation for the silly thing with the gown and stuff which happens tomorrow morning.

I have managed to go through my entire time as a student without complaining about debt or money issues. But just as I get to the end of this whole academic journey I have been tipped over the edge. I honestly cannot believe how much money I have had to spend on this nonsense. I don’t like dressing up at all (I think it’s quite pretentious, even on special occasions) so I’m buying all of these smart clothes for the first time. I haven’t got the calculator out, but I reckon it must be well over the £200 mark by now. What a load of fuss over 90 minutes! I bet you I will never find another use for that white bow tie…

Anyway, thanks to the wonders of modern technology my graduation ceremony will be broadcast live on the internets (Windows Meeja required). Will I trip up? Will my trousers fall down? Will my hair catch fire? Tune in to find out!

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Jun 26 2008

Springwatch - the Final Frontier…

Published by Richard Havers under Sottish Politics

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Jun 26 2008

What a difference a day makes

Bit late with the blog today. As you may have discerned, things have been a little hectic here at Holyrood.

Parliament going on fire didn't help. (Small conflagration, no damage, no injuries.)

Fire aside, the fuss was caused by the verdict upon Wendy Alexander. Holyrood's standards committee reckons she should be suspended - for one day - as a rebuke for breaking the rules re the register of interests.

You'll find the substance elsewhere on this site. But, in essence, the committee decided she should have declared donations to her leadership campaign.

I suspect you'll have your own views on this. I suspect, further, that you won't be slow in declaring said views.

But herewith a few points. Counsel for the defence would say that Ms Alexander sought and obtained written guidance from parliamentary clerks to the effect that she didn't require to declare the donations as they weren't personal gifts.

Counsel for the prosecution would say that she should have over-complied. She should have declared the donations, regardless.

Wide open

Further - and importantly - by the time she sought advice, she was already in breach because she had exceeded the time limit.

Counsel for the defence says this is a politically motivated smear campaign. Counsel for the prosecution says Wendy Alexander left herself wide open to attack because of slipshod organisation and law-breaking (the Jersey donation.)

Counsel for the defence says the Parliamentary clerks took legal advice before guiding Ms Alexander.

Counsel for the prosecution says that is trumped by the ruling from the standards commissioner, Dr Jim Dyer. He said the donations should have been declared because they would be viewed as tantamount to gifts.

Keith Brown, the standards committee convener, professed himself torn between these competing views.

He said there was a definite breach. But there were "mitigating circumstances" in that Ms Alexander had sought advice from the clerks. In his view, the timing issue was key.

Committee balance

The committee divided on party lines. The SNP, the Tories and the LibDems backed the verdict. On the suggested sentence, the SNP and the LibDems backed suspension.

The Tories abstained, arguing that sanctions were in appropriate.

It now goes to the full parliament - in September, because Holyrood had risen for the summer recess by the time the committee ruled. They could overturn the recommendation.

But, if the chamber matches the committee balance, if the Tories abstain, then the suspension would go through.

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Jun 26 2008

FMQs

Published by HW under Sottish Politics

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Jun 26 2008

Springwatch - The Next Generation

Published by Richard Havers under Sottish Politics

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Jun 26 2008

Robert Mayer’s Recipe For Getting Kids Into Classical Music

Published by Richard Havers under Sottish Politics

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Jun 26 2008

UFO Odds Slashed….

Published by Richard Havers under Sottish Politics

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Jun 25 2008

Louis Jordan was a Genius…

Published by Richard Havers under Sottish Politics

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