
The answer is, it doesn't really matter. Considering that Michael Howard thought he was too old to stand at the next election, and that Kenneth Clarke lost leadership votes due to his age, Menzies Campbell's entry is a sure sign that the party doesn't expect to win the next election. I find it hard to believe that the new leader will be able to pull the Liberal Democrats together to form a consolidated, policy driven party. At least with Charles Kennedy, even if he didn't act like a Prime Minister in waiting, he did have strong policy ideas, and it appears that the opposite may well occur now. We might well see a leader who acts more like a Prime Minister but actually has more problems in directing the party in terms of policy. The Conservatives are talking more about the environment, which is traditionally seen as Lib Dem territory, and I wouldn't be surprised if they take a good number of votes from the Lib Dems at the next election based on this one issue alone.
Speaking of the Conservatives making gains, it is warming to hear so many members of the public actually admit that the Conservatives stand a chance at the next election. Admitting this is the first step to voting for them; the Conservatives haven't looked so good since before Black Wednesday. This is definitely down to the work of David Cameron, but it is also down to the fact that the last election showed the party what could be achieved if everyone stuck together, and unity is now the word. With Labour facing back bench unease on various fronts the Conservatives must present a congruent and focused package consistently over the next three years, and as long as we keep this friendly and optimistic image that shouldn't be all that difficult. There has been criticism of David Cameron that he is too vague and hasn't spelled out exactly what he plans to do in terms of specific policy, but it would be foolish of him to rush in and declare tax cuts for example, when the future financial situation in Britain is not that predictable. He is, however, setting out a direction for the party and that will make it easier for policy to fall into place. Yet the main point to Cameron's policy thinking is that he is listening to the country and in doing so he is increasing the chances of his policy decisions reflecting the wants and needs of the British people.
To simply follow the Conservative manual by the book is not the way forward, although many traditionalists want to carry on trudging through the battlefield oblivious to the fact that in many ways it's a different battle and in other ways a completely different field. And anyway, the Conservative manual according to whom? If it is according to Thatcherism, then it would be helpful to bear in mind what Michael Portillo told me at his Stirling University lecture: I asked him 'How relevant is Thatcherism to contemporary Conservative policy?' and he replied by saying that if you want to be true to the spirit of Thatcherism then you have to try new ideas, since Thatcher was prepared to do so and changed the country for the better in doing it.
I believe that the Conservative party should keep the ideas that work and upgrade those that no longer suit our political climate. Those who claim Cameron is changing his mind on issues must remember that in the 2005 election he was participating in the manifesto under the constraints that the party was under at that time. Michael Howard was in the job all of eighteen month and there was little chance of a complete new face for the party in some areas; Cameron is taking eighteen months alone to define policies. Some right-wing members of the Conservative party have expressed concern over the party's move closer to the centre ground, in that it may result in Labour and the Conservatives looking very similar in some areas. Whilst there may end up being broad similarities in some ways, it is important to remember two key points:
1) Opposition for opposition's sake is wrong. It only creates division when beneficial legislation could be put into action.
2) If the Conservatives do have a similar policy to Labour on a certain issue, the difference will be that Labour haven't delivered and the Conservatives will. Promises can often be similar but the difference in actual delivery is striking.
I am beginning to think that the only reason the Lib Dems aren't switching to the Conservatives is difficulty in swallowing their pride.
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