Scottish Political News

Will there be a UK General Election off the back of the Glasgow East “earthquake”? No. Next question?

If Gordon Brown felt unable to go to the country last autumn, he will scarcely be more encouraged as a consequence of defeat in Labour’s hitherto third safest seat in Scotland.

It is, however, entertaining to ponder the prospect, posed by David Cameron, the Tory leader.

It is amusing, further, to note that Mr Cameron didn’t, to my recollection, issue such an immediate challenge after his own party won in Crewe.

Then, he said that New Labour was over - but that the Tories still had to build support to prove they were worthy of replacing the UK government.

Why the difference? Two reasons. Firstly, the “me too” factor. Mr Cameron wants in on the show, presently dominated, entirely understandably, by the victorious SNP.

As Leader of the Opposition at Westminster, demanding an election is his instant news hit. Secondly, Mr Cameron knows that the PM is damaged yet further by this calamitous defeat - and wants to add to his grief by highlighting that plight.

Remember, though, that the Tories didn’t do particularly well in Glasgow East. Yes, they took third place instead of fourth. But that was because the plateau of Liberal Democrat support in 2005 collapsed. The Tories still lost ground slightly in terms of voting share in this by-election.

Can we, however, draw lessons from this result for the general election? Extrapolating the swing, we find that Labour would be left with but a single seat at Westminster from Scotland.

I expect that Tom Clarke would perform personfully in that solitary role, Labour’s answer to David Mundell.

Of course, this is nonsense. By-election swings are just that - they do not read through fully to general contests.

To be fair, the SNP are making no such claim - while, reasonably, delighting in a little mild sport at Labour’s expense.

However, add Glasgow East to Crewe and to Henley, where Labour came fifth, and you produce a potent stew. Folk are plainly deeply discontented with the UK Labour government - and have deftly discerned the various ways to express that.
Is that solely down to Gordon Brown? No. It is a factor of the political cycle - they’ve been in power for more than a decade.

It is a factor of the news cycle - voters are collectively bored with them, just as they were with John Major’s Tories.

It is a factor, above all, of economic difficulties. Folk are upset and looking for someone to kick.

Would changing the leader have made any difference? Don’t think so. Do you seriously imagine that, in Shettleston, they were saying: “I won’t vote for Gordon Brown. If only David Miliband were in charge…..where’s that James Purnell…..”

There is, however, an aspect where the leadership matters - and matters hugely.

If Gordon Brown isn’t, solely, the problem, is he perhaps the solution? Does he have the answers, the qualities that matters to reverse this decline for his party?

If the party concludes that he does not, then there may be substantial pressure for him to step aside.

In which case, Britain would have the third Prime Minister from a single party within a single Westminster term. Which would not be credible. Which would mean a general election. Which Labour would not want. Which is why, further, it may well not happen, however grumpy individual Labour MPs may be.

Finally, for the avoidance of doubt, this blog should be read alongside my overnight contributions - which majored upon the SNP. More to come later.

PS: One or two of you may have been wondering why I wasn’t on telly overnight, confining my musings to this blog and the wireless.

As of today, the mood is Peter Lorre after an especially testing session with the gendarmerie.

For a few days at least, catch me on the wireless - and, of course, here Online.

Many congratulations to John Mason, duly elected to serve as the Honourable Member for Glasgow East in Her Majesty’s House of Commons, not currently assembled.

Mr Mason, in case it had escaped your notice, belongs to the SNP and is a forceful advocate of independence.

Consequences? Conclusions? For the SNP, a stunning victory: up there with Hamilton and the two Govans.

Remember too that those earlier successes were recorded by charismatic, leading figures in the Nationalist movement.

That is not to decry Mr Mason’s achievement. Quite the reverse. He faced a tough Labour opponent, a huge challenge - and he has won.

Helped, of course, by a powerful party machine which now frequently outguns Labour.

For Labour? An appalling result in a constituency they have held in various guises virtually since their party came into existence.

Tough fight

As I said earlier, I think they will blunder if they lump the blame solely on the PM. Yes, the folk in the east end may be less than impressed with Mr Brown - but they don’t appear to think much of the rest of Labour either.

Will it, nevertheless, add to the pressure on Gordon Brown? Of course. Frankly, though, I don’t expect him to stand down any time soon.

He already knew he faced a tough fight. It will, however, increase the trepidation around him.

Other thoughts. The Tories will be pleased to have moved into third place - although still at a lowly level.

Cameron factor? Don’t think so. Not in the East End. Feisty candidate, perhaps. Plus folk seem to warm to Annabel Goldie.

For the Lib Dems, a poor night, slipping back into fourth place. Tells them what they knew: that they have to step up a gear.

Any message for independence? Not directly, I would suggest. People seemed more immediately concerned with food prices, fuel costs and the like: turning their anger on Labour.

Put off

However, at the very least, they were not deterred from voting SNP by Labour’s reminders of the candidate’s fundamental objectives.

Independence didn’t seem to scare them as it might have done in the past. Doesn’t mean they vote for it in a referendum - but might mean they aren’t fundamentally opposed.

Further, they were not put off by a year or more of SNP government in Scotland. Quite the reverse. They are prepared to listen to - and vote for - an SNP offer.

That could be highly significant in the longer run, particularly if Labour continues to struggle.

For now, though, congratulations to the winner. And that is John Mason. Of the Scottish National Party.

If you want to experience a proper rollercoaster of emotions, just watch an election in which you despise both of the main parties to hell.
Firstly, I apologise to the voters of Glasgow East for doubting their ability to vote for someone who wasn’t wearing a red rosette.
I was just flabbergasted to come in from a […]SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “Oh my goodness so many conflicting feelings”, url: “http://doctorvee.co.uk/2008/07/25/oh-my-goodness-so-many-conflicting-feelings/” });

The polls have closed. The count is underway.

First and best info, of course, here on the BBC.

First, a little background. Labour comes to this Scottish Westminster by-election - on the back of two catastrophic defeats in England.

They lost Crewe and Nantwich - with a 17% swing to the Tories.

And they came an embarrassing fifth in Henley.

But this is Glasgow East. Where they normally weigh the Labour vote.

In various guises, it’s been Labour since 1922. Since the Labour movement started winning at all, they’ve won the east end of Glasgow.

Artificial result

To win tonight, the SNP needs to record a voting swing from Labour of just under 22%.

That’s huge - but they’ve done it before. Winnie Ewing took Hamilton in 1967 with a swing of nearly 38%.

That’s artificial, though. The SNP was starting from zero - because the party didn’t fight the seat in 1966.

But in 1973, Margo Macdonald recorded a swing of nearly 27% to oust Labour.

Then in 1988, Jim Sillars - now Margo’s husband - took Govan for the SNP with a massive swing from Labour of 33%.

Scotland, he declared, was on the march.

Those are the famous SNP victories from Labour. Repeat that level of performance tonight - and the SNP will win.

But. More commonly, the SNP has forecast victory - and even recorded a good showing - only to fall short in contests with Labour.

Big swings

In 1978, Donald Dewar held off a Nationalist challenge to win Glasgow Garscadden.

The same year, George Robertson entered the Commons by defeating the SNP in the iconic seat of Hamilton.

In 1989, a year after Jim Sillars’ Govan triumph, Alex Neil registered a 15 point swing from Labour in Glasgow Central. But it wasn’t enough to win.

There were two by-elections in Paisley in November 1990. Two strong SNP performances. Two seats held by Labour.

In 1994, Monklands East - perhaps the most bitterly fought by-election in Scotland. A swing to the SNP of nearly 20% - but Helen Liddell held the seat for Labour.

Paisley South, November 1997, decent swing to the SNP - but Douglas Alexander won for Labour.

1999 - and it’s Hamilton again. Hamilton South. A swing of more than 22% to the Nationalists.

Labour holds

Not enough on the night - although it would do this evening for the SNP.

Glasgow Anniesland in 2000 after Donald Dewar died. Falkirk West in 2000. Livingston in 2005. All Westminster seats with a strong SNP challenge. All held by Labour.

So the question tonight for the SNP is not: Do you feel lucky? The question should be: Is this Govan or Garscadden? Hamilton ‘67 or Hamilton ‘99?

Find out on the BBC.

Well, I say “final thoughts”, but really I mean “first and only thoughts” because this is the first time I’ve actually managed to find the time and motivation to write about tomorrow’s Glasgow East by-election.
It’s difficult to know what I am hoping for. The party I am most sympathetic towards — the Lib Dems — […]SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “Final thoughts on Glasgow East”, url: “http://doctorvee.co.uk/2008/07/23/final-thoughts-on-glasgow-east/” });

I feel bereft. Here I am back from annual leave and the Glasgow East by-election is all but over.

Except of course for the small matter of the election itself. The opportunity for the people of the constituency to cast their vote.

Campaigning must be endlessly frustrating for politicians. On the streets and on the doorsteps, people display an exasperating desire to talk about their own concerns, the practical matters which afflict their lives.

By contrast, candidates would far rather talk about the issue which they regard as germane: that is, the fact that their opponent is the living embodiment of all evil.

On the scorching beaches of Crete, where I have been lounging, the Glasgow by-election was, of course, the permanent topic of discussion.

However, to fill in the few gaps which remained, I have trawled the internet: including catching up on televised debates.

Echo opinion

A few things occur. Just as in Dunfermline, it would appear that the physical state of the constituency is a relevant factor.

In the Fife contest, the candidates were only too keen to echo street opinion that the centre of Scotland’s ancient capital was slumbering towards hideous decay.

By contrast, in Glasgow East, it has become fashionable to insist that the area has many good points and that those who would decry it are simply lackeys of the effete southern media.

Secondly, many of the issues which have been raised are, strictly speaking, not the provenance of this by-election. That is because this is a contest for a seat at Westminster, not Holyrood.

Whoever is elected, consequently, will not be dealing directly with devolved matters such as policing, crime, schooling and health.

The third factor helps explain why those issues have been so prominent, other than the tedium of basing a by-election purely upon reserved issues such as tax and benefits.

Practical result

That is because the people of Glasgow East are being invited to choose, at least in part, not just between candidates but between governments.

I suppose that is inevitable when the lead party, Labour, forms the UK Government and the closest chasing rival, the SNP, forms the Scottish Government.

To that extent, this is a referendum between Gordon Brown and Alex Salmond or, more precisely, that is how the outcome may be interpreted.

The purist in me would point out gently that the practical result of this contest will be no more than the return of a representative to Westminster.

However, politics is seldom pure and the Glasgow East verdict may well have considerably wider repercussions.

In my previous post I asked, “Incidentally, how come Nicola Sturgeon always seems to be at the centre of these internet rumours come election time?”
A couple of days later someone submitted a comment (on a post that is over three and a half years old!) that contains the most outlandish rumour I have heard about […]SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: “Nicola Sturgeon and whispering”, url: “http://doctorvee.co.uk/2008/07/22/nicola-sturgeon-and-whispering/” });